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Immigrant networks are a rare bright spark in the world economy. Rich countries should welcome them

移民网成为世界经济罕有的闪光点，富国应当欢迎这些移民者

Nov 19th 2011 | from the print edition

THIS is not a good time to be foreign. Anti-immigrant parties are gaining ground in Europe. Britain has been fretting this week over lapses in its border controls (see article). In America Barack Obama has failed to deliver the immigration reform he promised (see article), and Republican presidential candidates would rather electrify the border fence with Mexico than educate the children of illegal aliens. America educates foreign scientists in its universities and then expels them, a policy the mayor of New York calls “national suicide”.

现在不是移居国外的好时机。反移民者的队伍在欧洲正日渐壮大，本周，英国一直对其边境上的纰漏担心不已。在美国，巴拉克•奥巴马未能如他所允诺的进行移民改革，共和党总统候选人甚至宁愿在美墨边境设置电网也不愿教育这些非法移民的孩子。美国在自己的大学里培养外国科学家，然后再把他们驱逐出境，纽约市市长将这种做法称为“国家自杀”。

This illiberal turn in attitudes to migration is no surprise. It is the result of cyclical economic gloom combined with a secular rise in pressure on rich countries’ borders. But governments now weighing up whether or not to try to slam the door should consider another factor: the growing economic importance of diasporas, and the contribution they can make to a country’s economic growth.

各国在对待移民态度上变得这么气量狭小不足为奇，这是周期性经济萧条和长期增长的富国边境压力协同作用的结果。但各国政府现在开始考虑，试图关闭国门是否应该考虑另外一个因素：这些移民者在经济上越来越大重要性，以及他们对国家经济增长所能做的贡献。

Old networks, new communications 老交情，新沟通

Diaspora networks—of Huguenots, Scots, Jews and many others—have always been a potent economic force, but the cheapness and ease of modern travel has made them larger and more numerous than ever before. There are now 215m first-generation migrants around the world: that’s 3% of the world’s population. If they were a nation, it would be a little larger than Brazil. There are more Chinese people living outside China than there are French people in France. Some 22m Indians are scattered all over the globe. Small concentrations of ethnic and linguistic groups have always been found in surprising places—Lebanese in west Africa, Japanese in Brazil and Welsh in Patagonia, for instance—but they have been joined by newer ones, such as west Africans in southern China.

移民者——有胡格诺派教徒，苏格兰人，犹太人，还有许多其他种族——都一直是一股强劲的经济力量，而现代交通的廉价和便捷更使他们的人数增加到前所未有的水平。全世界现在有2.15亿第一代移民者，占世界人口的3%。如果这些人组成一个国家，那会比巴西还大一点。住在海外的中国人数比在法国的法兰西人还多，散居在全球各个角落的印度人多达2200万。在许多意想不到的地方都有以种族和语言为单位聚居的小集体，比如西非的黎巴嫩人，巴西的日本人和巴塔哥尼亚的威尔士人，而且又有新的小集体形成，比如中国南部的西非人。

These networks of kinship and language make it easier to do business across borders (see article). They speed the flow of information: a Chinese trader in Indonesia who spots a gap in the market for cheap umbrellas will alert his cousin in Shenzhen who knows someone who runs an umbrella factory. Kinship ties foster trust, so they can seal the deal and get the umbrellas to Jakarta before the rainy season ends. Trust matters, especially in emerging markets where the rule of law is weak. So does a knowledge of the local culture. That is why so much foreign direct investment in China still passes through the Chinese diaspora. And modern communications make these networks an even more powerful tool of business.

以血缘和语言关系建立起来的联系网络使跨国生意变得更加容易。这些人加速了信息的传播：一位在印尼的中国商人注意到市场上对廉价雨伞的需求，就会告知他在深圳的亲戚，而这位亲戚认识某位雨伞制造商，血缘关系使得他们相互信任，所以他们就可以立即签订合约，在雨季结束之前向雅加达运送雨伞。信任真的很重要，特别在法律管理薄弱的新兴市场中。对当地文化的了解也同样重要，所以那么多外国直接投资还是要通过中国国外移民的关系。现代沟通方法使得这些联系网成为商业上更加有力的工具。

Diasporas also help spread ideas. Many of the emerging world’s brightest minds are educated at Western universities. An increasing number go home, taking with them both knowledge and contacts. Indian computer scientists in Bangalore bounce ideas constantly off their Indian friends in Silicon Valley. China’s technology industry is dominated by “sea turtles” (Chinese who have lived abroad and returned).

移民者对于概念的传播也有很大作用。新兴国家里许多聪明能干的人士接受的都是西方大学的教育，他们当中越来越多人回到自己祖国，同时带着他们的知识和人际关系，在班加罗尔的印度计算机科学家可以从他们在美国硅谷的印度朋友那里不断地获得信息，在中国，科技产业被一群“海归”（曾经在国外生活现已回国的中国人）掌控着。

Diasporas spread money, too. Migrants into rich countries not only send cash to their families; they also help companies in their host country operate in their home country. A Harvard Business School study shows that American companies that employ lots of ethnic Chinese people find it much easier to set up in China without a joint venture with a local firm.

国外散居者还能促进资金流通。移民到富国的人不仅给他们的家人寄钱，他们还帮助移居国的公司在自己的祖国运作。哈佛商学院的一项研究表明，雇佣许多中国人的美国公司更容易在中国建厂，而不需要和当地的公司组建合资企业。

Such arguments are unlikely to make much headway against hostility towards immigrants in rich

countries. Fury against foreigners is usually based on two (mutually incompatible) notions: that because so many migrants claim welfare they are a drain on the public purse; and that because they are prepared to work harder for less pay they will depress the wages of those at the bottom of the pile.

这些观点好像还不足以驳倒反对向富国移民的观点。对外国人的仇视通常来源于两点（互不相容的两点）：太多外国人获得社会福利，他们会用光公共资金；外国人有多干少赚的准备，所以他们会压低处于收入底层的民众的工资。

The first is usually not true (in Britain, for instance, immigrants claim benefits less than indigenous people do), and the second is hard to establish either way. Some studies do indeed suggest that competition from unskilled immigrants depresses the wages of unskilled locals. But others find this effect to be small or non-existent.

对于第一条，事实通常不是这样（比如在英国，移民申请社会福利的比英国本地人要少），第二条也很难站住脚。某些研究确实表明，没有特殊技能的移民会压低同样没有特殊技能的本地人的工资，但是另外的研究却发现，这种压低工资的影响非常小或者干脆不存在。

Nor is it possible to establish the impact of migration on overall growth. The sums are simply too difficult. Yet there are good reasons for believing that it is likely to be positive. Migrants tend to be hard-working and innovative. That spurs productivity and company formation. A recent study carried out by Duke University showed that, while immigrants make up an eighth of America’s population, they founded a quarter of the country’s technology and engineering firms. And, by linking the West with emerging markets, diasporas help rich countries to plug into fast-growing economies.

移民对整体经济发展所造成的影响是难以估计的。不过，有充分的理由相信这影响可能是积极的。移民者一般工作刻苦而且富有革新精神，这就刺激生产和公司形成。杜克大学最近的一项研究表明，尽管移民只占美国人口的八分之一，但美国四分之一的科技和工程公司都是由这些人建立的。并且，由于移民者将西方国家和新兴国家联系起来，他们可以帮助富国打入快速增长的经济体市场中。

Rich countries are thus likely to benefit from looser immigration policy; and fears that poor countries will suffer as a result of a “brain drain” are overblown. The prospect of working abroad spurs more people to acquire valuable skills, and not all subsequently emigrate. Skilled migrants send money home, and they often return to set up new businesses. One study found that unless they lose more than 20% of their university graduates, the brain drain makes poor countries richer.

因此，富国就有可能从其宽松的移民政策中获益，而穷国对“人才外流”会吃亏的恐惧有点夸大其词了。到国外工作的憧憬促使越来越多的人学习有用技能，但这些人并不是都能移民到外国。有一技之长的移民寄钱会祖国，也常常会回国建立新公司。一项研究表明，除非穷国有20%以上的大学毕业生流失，否则，人才外流会让穷国变富。

Indian takeaways

印度人吃完打包

Government as well as business gains from the spread of ideas through diasporas. Foreign-educated Indians, including the prime minister, Manmohan Singh (Oxford and Cambridge) and his sidekick Montek Ahluwalia (Oxford), played a big role in bringing economic reform to India in the early 1990s. Some 500,000 Chinese people have studied abroad and returned, mostly in the past decade; they dominate the think-tanks that advise the government, and are moving up the ranks of the Communist Party. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution, an American think-tank, predicts that they will be 15-17% of its Central Committee next year, up from 6% in 2002. Few sea turtles call openly for democracy. But they have seen how it works in practice, and they know that many countries that practise it are richer, cleaner and more stable than China.

政府和商业都会从移民者的概念散播中获益。在国外接受教育的印度人，如总理曼莫汉•辛格（曾在牛津大学和剑桥大学学习）及其助手蒙特克•阿鲁瓦利亚（曾在牛津大学学习），在促成上世纪90年代初的印度经济改革中扮演重要角色。大约有50万中国人曾在国外学习然后回国，其中大多数都是在过去十年中回国的，他们控制着为政府出谋划策的智库，并且在共产党中的职位正一步步升高，据美国政府智囊团布鲁金斯学会的李成预测，这些人占中央委员会人数的比例将从2002年的6%上升到明年的15%-17%。很少有海归公开叫嚣民主，但他们曾见识过别国如何实践民主，并且他们知道很多实践民主的国家比中国更富强、更廉洁、更安定。

As for the old world, its desire to close its borders is understandable but dangerous. Migration brings youth to ageing countries, and allows ideas to circulate in millions of mobile minds. That is good both for those who arrive with suitcases and dreams and for those who should welcome them.

对于欧洲旧世界来说，它们想关闭国门的做法可以理解，但却非常危险。移民者给这些老龄化国家带去年轻人，也带去了数以百万计的有新鲜想法的头脑。无论是对于那些提着手提箱怀揣梦想的移民者来说，还是对于应该欢迎他们的人来说，这都是件好事。